Well, everybody’s trying to guess who will win the Academy Awards this coming Sunday. I’m no expert in awards; I’m more about watching the movies and stating my preference than attempting to get in the mindset of voters. But I’ll give it a go, anyway. In bold are the ones I’m more certain will win. In parenthesis are my preferences for each category.
Best Picture – Argo (Django Unchained)
Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis (Joaquin Phoenix)
Best Actress – Jennifer Lawrence (Emmanuelle Riva)
Best Supporting Actor – Robert de Niro (Philip Seymour Hoffman)
Best Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway (Anne Hathaway)
Best Director – Steven Spielberg (Ang Lee)
Best Original Screenplay – Zero Dark Thirty (Zero Dark Thirty)
Best Adapted Screenplay – Argo (Silver Linings Playbook)
Best Animation – Brave (Anything but Brave… Wreck-it Ralph)
Best Foreign – Love (A Royal Affair)
Best Cinematography – Life of Pi (Life of Pi)
Best Editing – Argo (Zero Dark Thirty)
Best Production Design – Anna Karenina (Anna Karenina)
Best Costume Design – Anna Karenina (Les Misérables – I haven’t seen Mirror Mirror)
Best Make-up – Les Misérables (Les Misérables)
Best Score – Argo (Life of Pi)
Best Song – Skyfall (Skyfall)
Best Sound Mixing – Les Misérables (Les Misérables)
Best Sound Editing – Argo (Zero Dark Thirty)
Best Visual Effects – Life of Pi (Life of Pi)
Best Animated Short – Paperman (Head Over Heels)
The other categories I either don’t care about or haven’t seen the movies. In general, I’m betting that:
– Voters will go to their default favorite movie (Argo) for categories they may not want to put a lot of thought into.
– Voters who liked Argo and can’t give it best director – because apparently only dumb people voted to choose the nominees – will try to make up for it. This item and the previous one combined are the reason why I think Argo will take awards like score, screenplay and editing. Its victory in the best picture category is virtually certain.
– Harvey Weinstein and his endless supply of money and influence will translate into two acting awards for Silver Linings Playbook, one of them greatly undeserved (De Niro) and one that’s worthy of recognition, but shouldn’t prevail over a stronger competitor (J-Law and Riva, respectively).
– Steven Spielberg will get a consolation prize because Lincoln will otherwise crash and burn (12 nominations and 2 awards), and because the three directors that should be battling for the award (Bigelow, Tarantino and obviously Ben Affleck) are not on the list.
– Brave and Paperman will win just because. Apparently, the Academy doesn’t give much of a shit, just looks at who’s behind each movie and awards the studio that made it. Brave is really, really subpar, the kind of movie that should be causing eyes to roll just for being nominated, and then it’ll win, which is terrible for the Academy, assuming they wanna be seen as people who know the difference between a movie and a toilet seat.
– Skyfall is the surest shot. If any other song wins, kill someone who’s around you and blame it on the Oscars. You’ll get away with murder.
Yeah, well, I’ll probably get a lot of these wrong. If my favourites win, rather than the ones I think will win, I don’t mind being wrong at all.